CANNES 2009 : Palme odds, etc Print E-mail
DAS WEISSE BAND

AN ALTERNATIVE COMPETITION LINEUP                   
Air Doll [u.c.r.] - KORE-EDA Hirokazu
Antichrist [comp] - Lars Von Trier [6/10]
Dogtooth [u.c.r.] - Yorgos Lanthimos
Drag Me To Hell [midnight screenings] - Sam Raimi [6/10]
Enter the Void [comp] - Gaspar Noe
Group Portrait with Kids and Motorcycles [special screenings] - Pierre-William Glenn
I Killed My Mother [d.f.] - Xavier Dolan
Independencia [u.c.r.] - Raya Martin [6/10]
Land of Madness [d.f.] - Luc Moullet
Mother [u.c.r.] - BONG Joon-Ho
Ne change rien [d.f.] - Pedro Costa
Police, Adjective [u.c.r.] - Corneliu Porumbiou [7/10]
A Prophet [comp] - Jacques Audiard [6/10]
Samson and Delilah [u.c.r.] - Warwick Thornton
Up [opener] - Docter & Peterson [7/10]
Vengeance [comp] - Johnnie To
Vincere [comp] - Marco Bellocchio
The White Ribbon [comp] - Michael Haneke [6/10]
Wild Grass [comp] - Alain Resnais
Yuki & Nina [d.f.] Suwa & Girardot 
          KEY comp = competition; u.c.r. = un certain regard; d.f. = director's fortnight
{{and the winner would have been.............................. Porumboiu!}}




RECOMMENDED REPORTS                                            
Christoph Huber -
          [first week]; [second week]
Mike D'Angelo
IFC Daily

PALMARES                                                                        

PALME : HANEKE - THE WHITE RIBBON
GRAND PRIX : AUDIARD - A PROPHET
JURY : PARK - THIRST / ARNOLD - FISH TANK
ACTOR : WALTZ - INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
ACTRESS : GAINSBOURG - ANTICHRIST
DIRECTOR : MENDOZA - KINATAY
SCREENPLAY : FENG - SPRING FEVER
PRIX EXCEPTIONNEL : ALAIN RESNAIS

with or without honour in his own country? : French poster for A PROPHET

FINAL odds                                                                                 

(for information only)
Saturday 23rd May, 1800 BST
compiled by Neil Young 

      I
2/1 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
11/4 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
      II
7/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
9/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist  
      III
12/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
14/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
14/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
16/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
      IV
22/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
25/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
=========================================
=========================================
    
the also-rans
33/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces 
40/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
50/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
50/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face 
66/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
100/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
100/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
100/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
125/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
150/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo


AWARDS PREDICTIONS
Palme d'Or : The White Ribbon (Haneke)

Grand Prix :  A Prophet (Audiard)
Jury Prize : Antichrist (Von Trier)
    Best Director : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
   
(dangers : The Time That Remains, Vincere, Bright Star, Antichrist, Fish Tank, Wild Grass.)
Best Screenplay : Jane Campion, Bright Star
   (danger : Fish Tank, Wild Grass, Vincere, The Time That Remains.)
Best Actress : {a wild-card pick} KIM Ok-Bin, Thirst 
  
(dangers : Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank; Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere; Abbie Cornish, Bright Star; Charlotte Gainsbourg, Antichrist.)
Best Actor : Andre Dussolier, Wild Grass
  
(dangers : Tahar Rahim, A Prophet; Willem Dafoe, Antichrist; Ben Whishaw, Bright Star; Francois Cluzet, In the Beginning; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds; Michael Fassbender, Fish Tank.)
Special Technical Achievement (if given) : Benoît Debie, Into the Void (cinematographer)
Lifetime Achievement (if given) : Alain Resnais




But, sir, when we have failed, and another has succeeded; when we have stood by, and another has stepped in; when we sit and grow bulky in our charming mansions, and a plain, uncouth peasant steps into the battle, under the eyes of God, and succours the afflicted, and consoles the dying, and is himself afflicted in his turn, and dies upon the field of honour - the battle cannot be retrieved as your unhappy irritation has suggested. It is a lost battle, and lost for ever. 



Jigsaw Lounge want-see rankings
--------------------------------------
1. Antichrist (104m) {seen Copenhagen, 29.May 2009} 6/10
2. The White Ribbon (144m) {seen Newcastle, 14.Nov 2009} 6/10
3. Wild Grass (104m)
4. A Prophet (150m) {seen Vienna, 25.Oct 2009} 6/10
5. Enter the Void (163m) < the longest film in competition (a work-in-progress)
6. Vengeance (108m)
7. Vincere (128m)
8. Bright Star (120m) {seen Birmingham, 3.Oct.2009} 6/10
9. Kinatay (100m) < the shortest film in competition (title = "butchered")
10. In the Beginning (150m)

11. Thirst (133m)
12. Broken Embraces (129m) {seen Nuneaton, 13.June 2009} 4/10
13. Face (138m)
14. Inglourious Basterds (148m) {seen London, 4.Aug. 2009} 6/10
15. Fish Tank (124m) {seen Nuneaton, 12.June 2009} 7/10
16. Taking Woodstock (120m)
17. The Time That Remains (109m)
18. Looking For Eric (116m)
19. Spring Fever (115m)
20. Map of the Sounds of Tokyo (109m)

                                              average run-time = 126m


life : elsewhere?
-----------------------------
love is like oxygen : AIR DOLL1. Police, Adjective - Corneliu Porumboiu [Un certain regard]
2. Dogtooth - Yorgos Lanthimos [Un certain regard]
3. Land of Madness - Luc Moullet [director's fortnight]
4. Mother - BONG Joon-Ho [Un certain regard]
5. Air Doll - KORE-EDA Hirokazu [Un certain regard]
6. I Killed My Mother - Xavier Dolan [director's fortnight]
7. Samson and Delilah - Warwick Thornton [Un certain regard]
8. Ne change rien - Pedro Costa [u.c.r.]
9. Tales from the Golden Age - C.Mungiu et al [Un certain regard]
10. Independencia - Raya Martin [Un certain regard]

Drag Me To Hell - Sam Raimi [midnight screenings]
Go Get Some Rosemary - Safdie & Safdie [director's fortnight]
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Terry Gilliam [out of competition]
Irene - Alain Cavalier [Un certain regard]
The King of Escape - Alain Guiraudie [director's fortnight]
Like You Know It All - HONG Sang-soo [director's fortnight]
Manila - Alix & Martin [special screenings]
Oxhide II - LIU Jia Yin [director's fortnight]
Polytechnique - Denis Villeneuve [director's fortnight]
Tetro - Francis Ford Coppola [director's fortnight]
To Die Like A Man - Joao Pedro Rodrigues [Un certain regard]
Up - Docter & Peterson [opener]
Yuki & Nina - Suwa & Girardot [director's fortnight]


Micropsia top ratings (out of ten) 
                                     
with thanks to Diego Lerer
-----------------------------
1.- "Yuki & Nina" - 8.60
2.- "Independencia" - 8.55
3.- "Police, adjective" - 8.50
4.- "Ne change rien" - 8.33
5.- "Irene" - 7.86
6.- "Like You Know It All" - 7.83
7.= "Wild Grass" - 7.55
7.= "Vincere" - 7.55
9.- "Go Get Some Rosemary" - 7.50
10.- "The White Ribbon" - 7.18

 



ODDS ARCHIVE
~~~~~~~~~~

Friday 22nd May, 2050 BST
     group one
5/2 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
7/2 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
     group two
9/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist    
10/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
11/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
     group three
14/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
16/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
16/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
     group four
20/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
22/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
28/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
28/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces 
     group five
33/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
40/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
50/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay 
66/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
     group six
100/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
100/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
100/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
125/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thursday 21st May, 1240 BST
     group one
7/4 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
     group two
13/2 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
15/2 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
11/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
     group three
16/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
16/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
20/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist     (now that the dust has settled...)
22/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
28/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
28/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces 
28/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
     group four
33/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
40/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
50/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
50/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
50/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
     group five
100/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
100/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
100/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
125/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tuesday 19th May, 0950 BST
     group one
2/1 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
6/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces 
6/1 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
     group two
10/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
12/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
12/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
14/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
======================================
     group three
20/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
25/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
28/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
     group four
33/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
35/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
35/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
40/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
40/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
40/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
     group five
45/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
50/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
50/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
======================================
======================================
======================================
     group 666
125/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist
               "But my God, what a screening! What a reaction! Critics howling, hooting, shrieking."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sunday 17th May, 0148 BST
     group one
6/4 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
9/2 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces 
     group two
9/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
10/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
10/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
12/1 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
     group three
22/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
25/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
28/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
28/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
28/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
28/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
     group four
33/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
35/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
35/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
     group five
50/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
50/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
50/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
50/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
66/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Friday 15th May, 1100 BST
     group one
7/4 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon 
     group two
9/2 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces
9/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains 
12/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
     group three
18/1 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet 
22/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
25/1 : Gaspar Noé, Enter the Void 
25/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
28/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
28/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
28/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
     group four
33/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
33/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
35/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
35/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever 
35/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
     group five
50/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst 
50/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
50/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
66/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Monday 11th May, 2230 BST
     group one
6/4 : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon
     group two
5/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains
7/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces
     group three
12/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
14/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever
     group four
22/1 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet
22/1 : Gaspar Noe, Enter the Void
25/1 : Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
28/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
28/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
33/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
33/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
35/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
35/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
35/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
    
group five
40/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst
40/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning
50/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
66/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist
100/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Saturday 9th May, 1400 BST
     group one
EVENS : Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon
     group two
6/1 : Elia Suleiman, The Time That Remains
7/1 : Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces
10/1 : TSAI Ming-Liang, Face
     group three
18/1 : Alain Resnais, Les Herbes Folles
20/1 : Jane Campion, Bright Star
20/1 : LOU Ye, Spring Fever
22/1 : Ken Loach, Looking For Eric
     group four
25/1 : Gaspar Noe, Enter the Void
25/1 : Johnnie To, Vengeance
25/1 : Marco Bellocchio, Vincere
28/1 : Brillante Mendoza, Kinatay
33/1 : Andrea Arnold, Fish Tank
33/1 : Isabel Coixet, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo
33/1 : Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
40/1 : PARK Chan-Wook, Thirst
40/1 : Jacques Audiard, A Prophet
     group five
66/1 : Lars Von Trier, Antichrist
66/1 : Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
100/1 : Xavier Giannoli, In the Beginning

 

 

 

 

 

 











 











 






LV.....t



LATEST : 1630 BST
3/1 Von Trier, 7/2 Resnais, 9/2 Haneke.
Then 8/1 Audiard (chances gradually ebbing), with the remainder 14/1+. 
Von Trier now apparently prefers to let the train take the strain.

1440 BST
Unclear whether Von Trier returned to Cannes (in which case it's likely he's got something very big) or simply never left after his screening - and considering he famously uses a camper-van to get from Copenhagen to the Croisette, the latter is perhaps more likely. In addition, the fact that he's visible giving interviews this morning suggests he may not have won the Palme, as it's apparently "customary" for the winner to keep a "low profile" until the ceremony. Then again, if the jury still haven't made their mind up, who knows?
    So: 11/4 Von Trier, 3/1 Resnais, 11/2 Audiard, 13/2 Haneke, with the remainder 12/1+. 

1405 BST
Former Edinburgh FF head Shane Danielsen has just posted this on the Onion A.V.Club website:
http://www.avclub.com/articles/cannes-09-day-11,28395/
Jury unusually troubled, apparently, with president Isabelle Huppert riding roughshod over everyone, and James Gray reportedly calling her a "f****** b****" in their final meeting. Unbelievably, the word going around is it's the Von Trier. Who IS still here - he was doing interviews yesterday and this morning. And he's not exactly the kind of guy to hang around a moment longer than he has to ...

LATEST : 1340 BST
The "totally divided" jury has reportedly turned rancorous - sounds like a nasty atmosphere in there. There is (reportedly!) at least one very strong and influential advocate for Antichrist. Lars Von Trier is supposedly (back?) in town - presumably he has been "summonsed" to return (if he ever left) by the festival-organisers. The odds are thus moving quickly in his favour, though the more rancorous the jury-atmosphere, the more likely it is that "compromise candidate" Resnais will benefit. Audiard and Haneke may have to settle for minor honours.
   State of play : 9/4 Von Trier, 3/1 Resnais, 9/2 Audiard and 7/1 Haneke, with the remainder 12/1+. 

Meanwhile from last night...
Scandal on the Croisette :
ECUMENICAL JURY SHATTERS PROTOCOL TO SLAM VON TRIER



comment
At this stage anything other than The White Ribbon or A Prophet for the Palme would count as a considerable surprise - though only a fool would rule out Wild Grass or Antichrist (it's also possible to make a case for Bright Star, Fish Tank and The Time That Remains - and even, at a push, Vincere and In the Beginning.)
   A Prophet is widely regarded as the "front-runner" on the Croisette but such front-runners famously seldom oblige. France won last year for The Class, and you have to go back to 1987 (Under Satan's Sun) for the previous "home" success (not counting France-Germany-UK-Poland co-production The Pianist in 2002).
   Surprisingly, there have never been back-to-back French victories in the history of the festival, and A Prophet also looks shaky because (a) critical support for the picture has been far from unanimous ("a total mess", according to arguably the most respected of critics from the German-language press), (b) it has a decidedly blokey feel for such a female-skewing jury, (c) it's up against Michael Haneke.
   Haneke has come mighty close to the Palme on more than one occasion and there's the sense that this is his "turn". The film is generally regarded as very strong and has had very few negative reactions. It's a sober, serious treatment (2 1/2 hours in black-and-white) of an impeccably serious subject, and it surely can't hurt that jury-president Isabelle Huppert was directed by Haneke to the Best Actress prize here for The Piano Teacher.
   The clincher: a beaming Haneke turned up on the Croisette accompanied by the children who play the main roles in the movie - and that worked just dandy for Laurent Cantet's The Class twelve months ago. The White Ribbon has topped the Jigsaw Lounge odds since we started publishing them a full fortnight ago [scroll right down] and, with the winning post in sight, we see no reason to change horses in the last strides of the final furlong.
                                 'Father Damien'
                                 Saturday 23rd May 2009


PS - latest word (as of 8pm Saturday) is that the jury is "totally divided." Presuming that said division is between devotees of the Haneke and the Audiard (and that might be a very dangerous presumption), we should be looking for a third-way "compromise" choice that everybody likes but nobody has extreme opinions about either way. And with M Resnais apparently very resistant to the idea of "lifetime achievement" awards, his Wild Grass might just be about to sneak through on the rails...


< Prev   Next >