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STARS OF THE NIGHT
1. Colin Farrell (Marketa's return was reportedly his doing)
2. Tilda Swinton
3. Gary Busey ('Not Fade Away' indeed)
4. Laura Linney
(showing everyone how to handle a "tricky" situation with humour and class)
5. Amy Adams (doing A Happy Working Song solo on stage -- that's talent)
DIORAMA OF DISHONOUR
1. Ryan Seacrest (precisely how not to handle a "tricky" situation)
2. The producers (devoting time to endless banal montages and cutting off anyone
who tiptoed beyond the 45 second barrier)
3. AMPAS voters (going for Elswit over James/Ford's Roger Deakins)
FINAL WIN PREDICTIONS (SAT 23.FEB., 1330 GMT)
figures in brackets after the titles are latest US box office totals, in millions of $
BEST PICTURE
1 No Country For Old Men (63) {{{{{WON
2 Juno (127)
3 There Will Be Blood (33)
(4) Realm and Conquest (48)
(5) Atonement (48)
Front-runner for so long, perhaps predictably No Country is showing signs of "wobble" in the final furlong. Dark-horse possible upset: Juno, which has made more than twice as much at the US-BO as any other contender. But the Coens will likely hold on.
expert consensus : No Country For Old Men, 91%
BEST DIRECTOR
1 Paul Thomas Anderson, TWBB (33)
2 Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, NCFOM (63) {{{{{WON
3 Jason Reitman, Juno (127)
(4) Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (5)
(5) Tony Gilroy, Realm and Conquest (48)
Will they reckon Day-Lewis's win enough for TWBB? Or will there be a need to specifically honour Anderson somewhere? With Adapted Screenplay so tough, and Reitman surely less likely to win here than Best Picture, this would seem Anderson's best shot.
e.c. : Coens, 95%
BEST ACTOR
1 Daniel Day-Lewis, TWBB (33) {{{{{WON
(2) Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd (52)
(3) George Clooney, Realm and Conquest (48)
(4) Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises (17)
(5) Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah (6.8)
One-horse race, with no signs of late wobble.
e.c. : Day-Lewis, 98%
BEST ACTRESS
1 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en rose (10) {{{{{WON
2 Julie Christie, Away From Her (4.6)
3 Ellen Page, Juno (127)
(4) Laura Linney, The Savages (5.8)
(5) Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth - The Golden Age (16.4)
After months of Christie looking very solid, in the last few weeks this has become a two - and then a three - horse race. Page could score a shock upset for Juno, fast gaining traction as a Best Picture candidate. But Cotillard ticks too many boxes - this isn't a category where sentimentality towards veterans, or warmth towards perky newcomers, translates into votes.
e.c. : Christie, 81%
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1 Javier Bardem, NCFOM (63) {{{{{WON
(2) Tom Wilkinson, Realm and Conquest (48)
(3) Casey Affleck, The James/Ford (3.9 - ouch)
(4) Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild (18)
(5) Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War (66.4)
This is usually the very first award given - hopefully that will be the case this year, as it's surely the only race with absolutely zero suspense attached to it. One can concoct a scenario in which Bardem doesn't win, but it would be decidedly science-fictional.
e.c. : Bardem, 95%
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1 Tilda Swinton, Realm and Conquest (48) {{{{{WON
2 Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone (20)
3 Cate Blanchett, I'm Not Dylan (3.9)
4 Ruby Dee, American Gangster (130)
5 Saoirse Ronan, Atonement (48)
In stark - and welcome - contrast to the blokes, perhaps the most wide-open field in recent Oscar history: a strong case can be made for or against all five, and each have their supporters. In the last couple of weeks, however, Swinton and her picture seem to have finally gained traction and momentum. What odds a tie? Maybe three-way?
e.c. : Blanchett 49%
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1 Brooke Busey-Hunt a.k.a. 'Diablo Cody', Juno (127) {{{{{WON
2 Tony Gilroy, Realm and Conquest (48)
3 Brad Bird, Ratatouille (206)
(4) Tamara Jenkins, The Savages (5.8)
(5) Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl (5.9)
Has always been rather a tricky three-way contest, though the late Best Picture challenge for Juno may well translate into success here.
e.c. : Juno, 46%
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1 Christopher Hampton, Atonement (48)
2 Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (5)
3 Ethan & Joel Coen, NCFOM (63) {{{{{WON
4 Paul Thomas Anderson, TWBB (33)
5 Sarah Polley, Away From Her (4.6)
In theory, a scrap between the two big nom-count-leading Picture/Director rivals. In practice, however, more likely that one of the more "literary" candidates with prevail. It's been 20 years since Hampton last won, Harwood's script was translated (by someone else) into French, and it has much less dialogue in it. The Academy may want to give Atonement something pretty big, and this looks a suitable chance.
e.c. : No Country For Old Men, 83%
OTHER CATEGORIES
Art Direction : Sweeney Todd {{{{{WON
Cinematography : No Country For Old Men {{{{{There Will Be Blood
Costume Design : Sweeney Todd {{{{{Elizabeth - The Golden Age
Film Editing : No Country For Old Men {{{{{The Bourne Ultimatum
Makeup : La vie en rose {{{{{WON
Music (score) : Atonement {{{{{WON
Music (song) : Once {{{{{WON
Sound Editing : Transformers {{{{{The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing : The Bourne Ultimatum {{{{{WON
Visual Effects : Transformers {{{{{The Golden Compass
Animated Feature : Ratatouille {{{{{WON
Foreign-Language Feature : The Counterfeiters {{{{{WON
Documentary Feature : No End In Sight {{{{{Taxi to the Dark Side
totals
4 No Country For Old Men
2 There Will Be Blood, La vie en rose, Atonement, Sweeney Todd, Transformers
{{{{{4 No Country For Old Men
{{{{{3 The Bourne Ultimatum
{{{{{2 There Will Be Blood, La vie en rose
Jigsaw Lounge 2007/8 Ballot
BEST PICTURE
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
* Control
Hot Fuzz
We Own the Night
Zodiac
BEST DIRECTOR
* Anton Corbijn, Control
Andrew Dominik, James/Ford
David Fincher, Zodiac
James Gray, We Own the Night
Cristian Mungiu, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
BEST ACTOR
Chris Cooper, Breach
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Joaquin Phoenix, We Own the Night
* Sam Riley, Control
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ashley Judd, Bug
Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
* Carice Van Houten, Black Book
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brian Cox, Zodiac
* Crispin Glover, Beowulf
Bruce Greenwood, I'm Not There
Sebastian Koch, Black Book
John Carroll Lynch, Zodiac
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
* Imelda Staunton, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Juno Temple, Atonement
Laura Vasiliu, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Book
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
Hot Fuzz
Offside
* We Own the Night
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Beowulf
* Control
The Last Mimzy
Zodiac
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POST-NOMINATIONS : FIRST REACTION...
the good news:
1. There Will Be Blood top of nominations tally (albeit only joint)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson three nominations (overdue)
3. Dylan Tichenor first nomination (editor) (overdue)
4. Tilda Swinton first nomination (massively overdue)
5. Viggo Mortensen first nomination (a year overdue)
6. Happy Working Song nominated for Best Song
7. Roger Deakins nominated for James/Ford
8. Ruby Dee (and, 8a : not much else for American Gangster)
9. Saiorse Ronan
10. There Will Be Blood one of only two Best Pic nominees also listed for Best Editing (you don't win the former without being nominated for the latter)
11. Father Malone first nomination
12. Yet another nomination for The Marvellous Laura Linney
13. Second nomination for Tom Wilkinson (go, Realm & Conquest, go!)
14. Away From Her screenplay nomination gives Christie the edge over Cotillard... or does it?
15. Tommy Lee Jones nomination for Elah : not a great film, but perhaps his best-ever performance?
16. Once only nominated for song (which it might win thanks to Enchanted votesplitting)
17. Casey Affleck
18. Eddie Vedder snubbed for song (ha!)
19. First nomination for Ellen Page (only a year overdue)
20. Jack Fisk
21. Sarah Polley
the not-so-good news:
1. Nothing for Zodiac, Control, or We Own the Night
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh snubbed again
3. Deakins nominated for No Country : might lead to vote splitting
4. Paul Dano snubbed
5. J.Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score absent - INELIGIBLE?!
6. Catherine Keener snubbed
7. David Cronenberg snubbed (again)
8. Nothing for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days9. Nothing for Emile Hirsch (they weren't so keen on Into the Wild, after all)
10. Nothing for Josh Brolin
11. Nothing for Gordon Pinsent
Nomination-predictions Monday 21st January (actual nominees marked with a !, snubs with an X)
rankings are in order of nomination-probability.
certainties for nomination appear in bold
Best Picture
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1. No Country For Old Men {WINS?} !
2. There Will Be Blood {danger} !
3. Atonement {danger} !
4. Sweeney Todd X
5. Realm and Conquest !
6. Into the Wild
7. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. Juno !
9. American Gangster
10. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
11. 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
12. Once
Best Director
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1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men {WINS?} !
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood {danger} !
3. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead x
4. Joe Wright, Atonement x
5. Sean Penn, Into the Wild x
6. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly !
7. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
8. David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises
9. Ridley Scott, American Gangster
10. Tony Gilroy, Realm and Conquest
11. Cristian Mungiu, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
12. Jason Reitman, Juno !
Best Actor
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1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood {WINS} !
2. George Clooney, Realm and Conquest {nominal "danger"} !
3. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd !
4. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises !
5. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild x
6. James McAvoy, Atonement
7. Gordon Pinsent, Away From Her
8. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah !
9. Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
10. Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
11. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
12. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
Best Actress
--------------
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose {WINS} !
2. Julie Christie, Away From Her {live danger} !
3. Ellen Page, Juno !
4. Keira Knightley, Atonement X
5. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart X
6. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth : The Golden Age !
7. Amy Adams, Enchanted
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
9. Laura Linney, The Savages !
10. Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
11. Jodie Foster, The Brave One
12. Tang Wei, Lust Caution
Best Supporting Actor
------------------------
1. Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men {WINS} !
2. Tom Wilkinson, Realm and Conquest {surprisingly live danger} !
3. Casey Affleck, James/Ford !
4. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild !
5. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood x
6. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
7. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War !
8. Gordon Pinsent, Away From Her
9. John Travolta, Hairspray
10. Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn
11. Vlad Ivanov, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
12. Marcus Carl Franklin, I'm Not There
Best Supporting Actress
--------------------------
1. Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There {danger} !
2. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone {WINS} !
3. Tilda Swinton, Realm and Conquest {danger} !
4. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement !
5. Catherine Keener, Into the Wild X
6. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
7. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
8. Kelly MacDonald, No Country For Old Men
9. Ruby Dee, American Gangster !
10. Romola Garai, Atonement
11. Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
12. Jennifer Garner, Juno
Best Original Screenplay
---------------------------
1. Realm and Conquest {WINS} !
2. Ratatouille {danger} !
3. Once X
4. Juno !
5. 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days X
6. Eastern Promises
7. Lars and the Real Girl !
8. I'm Not There
9. The Savages !
10. Knocked Up
11. Waitress
12. American Gangster
Best Adapted Screenplay
----------------------------
1. No Country For Old Men {WINS} !
2. Atonement {danger} !
3. There Will Be Blood {danger} !
4. Into the Wild X
5. The Kite Runner X
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly !
7. Sweeney Todd
8. Away From Her !
9. Zodiac
10. Charlie Wilson's War
11. Gone Baby Gone
12. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
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