Well, for us at Jigsaw Lounge, Marcia Gay Harden more than makes up for the Crouching Tiger disappointment – we got half the eight main categories right, and in what turned out to be a very open, lets-spread-them-around year, that’s not bad going… On the whole, favourites obliged, except Director and Supporting Actress, though the momentum DID feel like it was flowing in Crouching Tiger’s way at the very last moment. Thanks for following our predictions over the months, and don’t forget to start looking at our Oscar 2001 lists as soon as you’ve got over this year’s shenanigans.

Best Picture
PREDICTION : CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
why : momentum – anti Gladiator, pro Tiger, and because they don’t usually split director and picture, and Ang Lee’s definitely going to win Director
WINNER : GLADIATOR – prevailed in what must have been a tight 3-way race ahead of CTHD and Traffic

Best Director
PREDICTION : ANG LEE – CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
why : unstoppable momentum
WINNER : STEVEN SODERBERGH, TRAFFIC – a genuine surprise, presumably attributable to a behind-the-scenes campaign emphasising the danger of votesplitting. But Ang Lee deserves to feel gutted.

Best Actor
PREDICTION : ED HARRIS – POLLOCK
why : open three-way vote, Hanks has won 2 already, Crowe has alienated too many people, leaving ever-popular pro’s pro Harris, who hasn’t been beaten by Bell or Del Toro
WINNER : RUSSELL CROWE – bad boy finally cleans up his act, but Harris can’t have been far back.

Best Actress
PREDICTION : JULIA ROBERTS – ERIN BROCKOVICH
why : elected by acclamation – it’s her turn
CORRECT

Best Supporting Actor
PREDICTION : BENICIO DEL TORO – TRAFFIC
why : freakish leading perf sneaks into supporting category – pity Albert Finney
CORRECT

Best Supporting Actress
MARCIA GAY HARDEN – POLLOCK
why : Walters and Dench split the Anglo vote, Hudson and McDormand ditto the Almost Famous constituency, leaving the one unambiguous LEAD among the five
CORRECT (euphoric highlight of the night)

Best Original Screenplay
PREDICTION : SUSANNAH GRANT – ERIN BROCKOVICH
why : nominated for best picture, plus she won the Academy’s own screenwriting contest a couple of years back
WINNER: CAMERON CROWE, ALMOST FAMOUS – to make up for Kate Hudson???

Best Adapted Screeenplay
STEPHEN GAGHAN – TRAFFIC
why : Soderbergh by proxy
CORRECT

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