lists are in order of win probability
last update : 6th March
what I reckoned to be realistic win candidates (on the day of the awards) are in bold
WINNERS ARE MARKED WITH A ROW OF EXCLAMATION-MARKS or ASTERISKS
ACTOR
1. Hoffman ************************ correct
2. Ledger
3. Strathairn
4. Howard
5. Phoenix
ACTRESS
1. Witherspoon ************************ correct
2. Huffman
3. Dench
4. Knightley
5. Theron
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Dillon
2. Giamatti
3. Clooney !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! oops
4. Gyllenhaal
5. Hurt
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Weisz ********************* correct (it's her birthday tomorrow)
2. Keener
3. Williams
4. Adams
5. McDormand
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Good Night, and Good Luck.
2. Crash !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! oops : couldn't bring myself to tip such
an undeserving screenplay
3. Syriana
4. The Squid and the Whale
5. Match Point
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Brokeback Mountain ********************* correct
2. Capote
3. Munich
4. A History of Violence
5. The Constant Gardener
DIRECTOR
1. Lee ********************************** correct
2. Clooney
3. Haggis
4. Spielberg
5. Miller
PICTURE
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Crash !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (their) oops
3. Good Night, and Good Luck.
4. Munich
5. Capote
ANIMATED : Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit ***** YES
FOREIGN : Sophie Scholl : The Final Days !!!! (no)
ARCHIVE : nominations predictions from 31/1/06
Nominations now out. Lists of nominees ranked according to win-order probability will appear here shortly.
Lists are in order of nomination probability
FINAL update : morning of 31st January 2006. [Nominations announced 31st January]
* : possible winner
** : most likely winner from top 5 nomination candidates
*** : certainty for win
ACTOR 
1 ** Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2 * Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
3 Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
4 David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
5 Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
—————————————————–
6 Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
7 Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
8 Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
9 Viggo Mortensen, A History of Violence
10 Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto
11 Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
12 Eric Bana, Munich (… you're avner laugh…)
nominations : Hoffman, Ledger, Phoenix, Strathairn, Howard
snubs : Daniels, Crowe, Fiennes
ACTRESS 
1 *** Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2 Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
3 Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
4 Charlize Theron, North Country
5 Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
—————————————————–
6 Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
7 Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
8 Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
9 Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
10 Q'orianka Kilcher, The New World
11 Maria Bello, A History of Violence
12 Naomi Watts, King Kong
nominations as predicted
snubs : Zhang, Allen
SUPPORTING ACTOR 
1 * Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
2 * George Clooney, Syriana
3 ** Matt Dillon, Crash
4 * Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
5 * Clifton Collins Jr, Capote
—————————————————–
6 * William Hurt, A History of Violence
7 * Frank Langella, Goodnight, and Good Luck.
8 * Michael Lonsdale, Munich
9 * Terrence Howard, Crash
10 * Bob Hoskins, Mrs Henderson Presents
11 * Ed Harris, A History of Violence
12 Don Cheadle, Crash
nominated : Giamatti, Clooney, Dillon, Gyllenhaal, Hurt
snubs : Collins, Langella
SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
1 * Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
2 * Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
3 * Catherine Keener, Capote
4 * Amy Adams, Junebug
5 ** Maria Bello, A History of Violence
—————————————————–
6 * Thandie Newton, Crash
7 Frances McDormand, North Country
8 * Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
9 * Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
10 Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes
11 Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
12 Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
nominated : Weisz, Williams, Keener, Adams, McDormand
snubs : Bello (!), Newton, Johansson
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1 * Crash (Haggis / Moresco)
2 ** Good Night, and Good Luck (Clooney / Heslov)
3 * The Squid and the Whale (Baumbach)
4 * Match Point (Allen)
5 * The 40-Year-Old Virgin (Apatow / Carell)
—————————————————–
6 * Syriana (Gaghan)
7 Wallace and Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (Park) [ADAPTED??]
8 Cinderella Man (Hollingsworth / Goldsman)
9 Hustle and Flow (Brewer)
10 Junebug (MacLachland)
11 The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada (Arriaga)
12 The New World (Malick)
nominated : Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, The Squid and the Whale,
Match Point, Syriana
snubs : The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Wallace and Gromit, Cinderella Man
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1 ** Brokeback Mountain (McMurtry / Ossana)
2 * Capote (Futterman)
3 * The Constant Gardener (Caine)
4 Walk the Line (Dennis / Mangold)
5 A History of Violence (Olson)
—————————————————–
6 Munich (Kushner / Roth)
7 Batman Begins (Nolan / Goyer)
8 Memoirs of a Geisha (Bass / Goldsman / Swicord / Wright)
9 The Chronicles of Narnia… (Adamson / Peacock / Markus / McFeely)
10 King Kong (Jackson / Walsh / Boyens)
12 Jarhead (Broyles)
nominated : Brokeback Mountain, Capote, The Constant Gardener,
A History of Violence, Munich
snub : Walk The Line
BEST DIRECTOR
1 ** Brokeback Mountain (Lee)
2 * Good Night, and Good Luck (Clooney)
3 * Crash (Haggis)
4 Capote (Miller)
5 A History of Violence (Cronenberg)
—————————————————–
6 The Constant Gardener (Meirelles)
7 Munich (Spielberg)
8 Match Point (Allen)
9 Walk the Line (Mangold)
10 The New World (Malick)
11 King Kong (Jackson)
12 2046 (Wong)
nominated : Lee, Clooney, Haggis, Miller, Spielberg
snubs : Cronenberg (!), Meirelles, Allen, Mangold
BEST PICTURE
1 *** Brokeback Mountain
2 Crash
3 Goodnight, and Good Luck.
4 Capote
5 Walk the Line
—————————————————–
6 The Constant Gardener
7 A History of Violence
8 Munich
9 King Kong
10 Match Point
11 Cinderella Man
12 The Chronicles of Narnia…
nominated: Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck,
Capote, Munich
snubs : Walk The Line, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence
