Berlinale 2011 : GOLDEN BEAR ODDS – FINAL!

THREE HORSE RACE ENTERS FINAL FURLONG : pre-awards dispatch/commentary/predictions
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FINAL ODDS (Sat 19 at 2pm)

EVENS : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
5/2 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
5/1 : The Future (July)

14/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
16/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)

22/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
25/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
25/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
28/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
33/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)

50/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
66/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
66/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

150/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
150/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
200/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

– – – – – –
previously…

(Sat 19 at 12.30am)

4/5 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
11/4 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
9/2 : The Future (July)

12/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
14/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
16/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)

22/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler0
25/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
25/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
33/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)

50/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
66/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
66/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

150/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
150/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
200/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Thu 17 at 12.30am)
4/5 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
6/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
8/1 : The Future (July)
9/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
10/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
14/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
16/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
18/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
20/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
22/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
28/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
66/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
100/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Thu 17 at 4.10pm)
EVENS : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
11/4 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
6/1 : The Future (July)
10/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
11/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
14/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
20/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
22/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
22/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
25/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
66/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
80/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
150/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
150/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
200/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Wed 16 at 12.30pm)
4/6 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
11/2 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
9/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
10/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
14/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
14/1 : The Future (July)
16/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
20/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
22/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
28/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
28/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
66/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
66/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Tue 15 at 11.30pm)
4/5 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
6/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
9/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
11/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
14/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
14/1 : The Future (July)
14/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
20/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
22/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
25/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
25/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
28/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
66/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Tue 15 at 6.30pm)
10/11 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
7/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
8/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
10/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
12/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
12/1 : The Future (July)
16/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
16/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
20/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
22/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
25/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
28/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
66/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Tue 15 at 11.30am)
4/5 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
9/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
9/1 : The Future (July)
10/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
11/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
12/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
14/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
16/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
20/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
22/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
25/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
28/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
66/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)

(Mon 14 at 3pm)
5/2 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
7/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
8/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
8/1 : The Future (July)
10/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
10/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
10/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
11/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
16/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
16/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
20/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
25/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
50/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

(Sun 13 at 6pm)
6/4 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
6/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
7/1 : The Future (July)
8/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
10/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
11/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
12/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
————————————————
16/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
16/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
22/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
25/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
25/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
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40/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)
40/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

(Fri 11 at 5pm)
6/4 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
6/1 : The Future (July)
6/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
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10/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
10/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
11/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
12/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
14/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
16/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
16/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
————————————————
22/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)
22/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
25/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
25/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
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50/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)
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(Mon 7 Feb at 7.45pm)
2/1 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
5/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
11/2 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
6/1 : The Future (July)
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12/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
14/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
14/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
18/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
18/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
————————————————
22/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
22/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)
25/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
25/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
35/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

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First odds, with commentary (Jan 19th)

With the exception of Bela Tarr – whose Nietzsche-inspired Turin Horse will apparently be his final film – there’s a disappointing lack of “heavy hitters” in this year’s Berlinale competition. And with Iranian cinema in the spotlight like never before (thanks to the incarceration of Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof), the front-runner has to be Nader and Simin: A Separation from Asghar Farhadi.

Farhadi won Best Director for About Elly here in 2009, and has spoken out in support of “dissident” Iranian filmmakers. His nation has, remarkably, never won the Golden Bear before – and if Farhadi’s picture is any good, we could well be looking at a coronation rather than a competition.

Farhadi’s main rivals (on paper) would appear to include Miranda July, following up 2005’s Me and You and Everybody We Know (which won four prizes at Cannes) with The Future. Two of the last five Bear winners have been female directors, while it’s over a decade since an American film was successful here: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Magnolia in 2000.

It’s never easy for debutant directors to win the very top prize at a major festivals, but Ralph Fiennes’ Shakespeare adaptation Coriolanus is hardly an unknown property from an unknown source, and in what looks a weakish field must be rated in with a serious chance as it may well turn out to be as heavyweight as its top-drawer cast (then again there’s a strong possibility that Fiennes, in the juicy title role, may have to settle for Best Actor…)

The remaining 13 candidates are dark horses of various hues – with Ulrich Koehler’s much-anticipated Sleeping Sickness up against the fact that German directors only rarely win their nation’s top prize, and Seyfi Teoman’s Our Grand Despair not exactly helped by Turkey’s triumph with Honey only twelve months ago.

Wild-cards: Chernobyl-themed Innocent Saturday from Russia, and Come Rain Come Shine from South Korea, the latter not-very-tantalising in synopsis but worthy of respect as (remarkably) the only East Asian representative among the final sixteen.


ODDS
9/4 : Nader and Simin, a Separation (Farhadi)
4/1 : Coriolanus (Fiennes)
6/1 : The Future (July)
8/1 : The Turin Horse (Tarr)
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12/1 : Sleeping Sickness (Koehler)
14/1 : The Forgiveness of Blood (Marston)
14/1 : Innocent Saturday (Mindadze)
16/1 : Come Rain, Come Shine (Lee)
18/1 : Our Grand Despair (Teoman)
————————————————
22/1 : Margin Call (Chandler)
25/1 : A Mysterious World (Moreno)
25/1 : Lipstikka (Sagall)
33/1 : Yelling to the Sky (Mahoney)
35/1 : The Prize (Markovitch)
40/1 : Tales of the Night (Ocelot)
50/1 : If Not Us, Who? (Veiel)

Predicted winners

GOLDEN BEAR : Nader and Simin, A Separation
JURY GRAND PRIX : The Turin Horse
BEST DIRECTOR : Lee Yoon-Ki, Come Rain Come Shine

BEST SCREENPLAY : Miranda July, The Future
danger — Ulrich Koehler, Sleeping Sickness
BEST ACTRESS : Paula Galinelli Hertzog and Laura Agorreca, The Prize
… dangers — Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus; the three stars of Nader & Simin
BEST ACTOR : Anton Shagin, Innocent Saturday
… dangers — Pierre Bokma, Sleeping Sickness; Tristan Halijaj, The Forgiveness of Blood
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Berlinale 2010 index-page

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