Berlinale 2013: Golden Bear odds // prize predictions
FRONT RUNNERS
4-1 Gloria (Lelio)
….. [Golden Bear; Best Actress, P.García ex aequo]
6-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi)
….. [Jury Grand Prix – Silver Bear]
7-1 Harmony Lessons (Baigazin)
….. [Best Actor, T.Aidarbekov; Fipresci prize]
7-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović)
….. [Best Screenplay]
9-1 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont)
….. [Best Director]
– – – – – – – – – –
PRIZE CHANCES
12-1 Paradise: Hope (Seidl)
….. [Alfred Bauer Prize]
14-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh)
….. [Technical Achievement: P.Andrews and M.A.Bernard]
14-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer)
….. [Best Actress, L.Georghiu ex aequo]
16-1 Layla Fourie (Marais)
– – – – – – – – – –
LONGSHOTS
20-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
20-1 Gold (Arslan)
22-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
28-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
33-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
– – – – – – – – – –
OUTSIDERS
50-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
66-1 On My Way (Bercot)
– – – – – – – – – – –
RANK OUTSIDERS
100-1 The Nun (Nicloux)
150-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
200-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
SATURDAY 16th February, 9.30am (22nd list)
Odds archive
Saturday 2nd February, 5.30pm (first list)
4-1 Paradise: Hope (Seidl)
6-1 Layla Fourie (Marais)
6-1 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont)
7-1 Gold (Arslan)
10-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi)
11-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
14-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
16-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović)
20-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh)
20-1 Gloria (Lélio)
25-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
28-1 Harmony Lessons (Baizagin)
28-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
28-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer)
33-1 On My Way (Bercot)
33-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
33-1 The Nun (Nicloux)
40-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
40-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
==================================================
FRIDAY 8th February, 9.30pm (fourth list)
4-1 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont)
5-1 Paradise: Hope (Seidl)
7-1 Layla Fourie (Marais)
8-1 Gold (Arslan)
11-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi)
11-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh)
14-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
14-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
16-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović)
25-1 On My Way (Bercot)
28-1 Gloria (Lélio)
33-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
33-1 Harmony Lessons (Baigazin)
33-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
33-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer)
35-1 The Nun (Nicloux)
40-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
50-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
50-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
==============================================
SUNDAY 10th February, 11.30pm (tenth list)
7-2 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont)
5-1 Gloria (Lelio)
13-2 Paradise: Hope (Seidl)
13-2 Layla Fourie (Marais)
8-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh)
10-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi)
– – – – – – – – – –
14-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
16-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović)
18-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
18-1 Gold (Arslan)
22-1 Harmony Lessons (Baigazin)
– – – – – – – – – –
28-1 On My Way (Bercot)
28-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer)
33-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
33-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
– – – – – – – – – –
40-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
50-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
50-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
80-1 The Nun (Nicloux)
===============================================
WEDNESDAY 13th February, 12.15am (16th list)
FRONT RUNNERS
4-1 Gloria (Lelio) [likely: Golden Bear]
11-2 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont) [likely: Best Actor, J-L.Vincent]
6-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi) [likely: Jury Grand Prix – Silver Bear]
– – – – – – – – – –
LIVE PRIZE CHANCES
8-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh) [likely: Best Director]
9-1 Paradise: Hope (Seidl) [likely: Best Screenplay]
10-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović) [likely: Outstanding Artistic Contribution]
10-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer) [likely: Best Actress, L.Georghiu]
– – – – – – – – – –
CAN’T BE RULED OUT
14-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
16-1 Layla Fourie (Marais) [likely: Alfred Bauer Prize]
18-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
20-1 Harmony Lessons (Baigazin)
– – – – – – – – – –
LONGSHOTS
25-1 Gold (Arslan)
28-1 On My Way (Bercot)
– – – – – – – – – –
OUTSIDERS
40-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
40-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
50-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
66-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
80-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
80-1 The Nun (Nicloux)
===========================================
THURSDAY 14th February, 8pm (20th list)
FRONT RUNNERS
9-2 Gloria (Lelio) [likely: Golden Bear; Best Actress, P.García]
6-1 An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Tanović) [likely: Jury Grand Prix – Silver Bear]
7-1 Harmony Lessons (Baigazin) [likely: Best Actor, T.Aidarbekov]
7-1 Camille Claudel 1915 (Dumont) [likely: Best Director]
8-1 Closed Curtain (Panahi & Partovi) [likely: Best Screenplay]
– – – – – – – – – –
PRIZE CHANCES
12-1 Paradise: Hope (Seidl) [likely: Alfred Bauer Prize]
14-1 Side Effects (Soderbergh)
14-1 Child’s Pose (Netzer)
14-1 Layla Fourie (Marais)
16-1 Nobody’s Daughter Haewon (Hong)
– – – – – – – – – –
LONGSHOTS
20-1 In the Name of (Szumowska)
22-1 Gold (Arslan)
28-1 On My Way (Bercot)
28-1 Prince Avalanche (Green)
33-1 Vic and Flo Saw a Bear (Côté)
– – – – – – – – – –
OUTSIDERS
40-1 A Long and Happy Life (Khlebnikov)
66-1 Promised Land (Van Sant)
80-1 The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman (Bond)
80-1 The Nun (Nicloux)