Cannes 2014: Palme d’Or (etc) odds

Published on: May 24th, 2014

Ceylan broods on the gold

to win the Palme d’Or

4/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan) Palme d’Or
9/2 Leviathan (A.Zvyagintsev) Grand Prix
5/1 Mommy (X.Dolan) Best Director
7/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh) Best Actor
- – -
9/1 Goodbye to Language (J-L.Godard) Prix du Jury
10/1 The Wonders (A.Rohrwacher) Best Screenplay
12/1 Timbuktu (A.Sissako)
12/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
14/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
16/1 Two Days, One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne) Best Actress
16/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
20/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
- – -
28/1 The Homesman (T.L.Jones)
33/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
50/1 Wild Tales (D.Szifrón)
- – -
125/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
150/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
200/1 The Captive (A.Egoyan)
- – - -
23rd LIST: updated 24th May 2014 at 0930 (UK)
for information only

.
BEST ACTRESS
2/1 Two Days One Night – Marion Cotillard
7/2 Mommy – Anne Dorval (solo or with Suzanne Clement)
7/1 Maps to the Stars – Julianne Moore
8/1 Clouds of Sils Maria – Kristen Stewart (solo or with Juliette Binoche)
11/1 The Wonders – Maria Alexandra Lungu
- – -
16/1 Still the Water – Jun Yoshinaga
20/1 Winter Sleep – Demet Akbag and/or Melisa Sozen
25/1 Timbuktu – Toulou Kiki
25/1 Leviathan – Elena Lyadova
33/1 The Homesman – Hillary Swank (/female ensemble)
33/1 Mr Turner – Dorothy Atkinson
33/1 Wild Tales – Erica Rivas (/female ensemble)

BEST ACTOR
3/1 Mr Turner – Timothy Spall
9/2 Winter Sleep – Haluk Bilginer
9/2 Foxcatcher – Steve Carell (/ C.Tatum / M.Ruffalo)
7/1 Leviathan – Alexey Serebryakov (/ Vladimir Vdovichenkov)
9/1 Timbuktu – Ibrahim Ahmed
9/1 Jimmy’s Hall – Barry Ward (/ Jim Norton)
10/1 Mommy – Antoine-Olivier Pilon
- – -
14/1 The Search – Abdul-Khalim Mamatsuiev
22/1 Saint Laurent – Gaspard Ulliel
25/1 Two Days One Night – Fabrizio Rongione
28/1 The Homesman – Tommy Lee Jones
28/1 The Wonders – Sam Louwyck
33/1 Still the Water – Nijiri Murakami
40/1 Wild Tales – Ricardo Darín (/ male ensemble)
40/1 Maps to the Stars – Robert Pattinson (/John Cusack and/or Evan Bird)

 

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ARCHIVE

FIRST LIST: published 18th March 2014 at 9.45am (UK time)

10/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)
11/1 A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Contemplating Existence (R.Andersson)
12/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
12/1 Leviafan (A.Zvyagintsev)
14/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
16/1 Amour Fou (J.Hausner)
16/1 Horse Money (P.Costa)
16/1 Phoenix (C.Petzold)
16/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
16/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
18/1 Miss Julie (L.Ullmann)
18/1 Queen and Country (J.Boorman)
18/1 The Pain of Birds (A.Sissako)
18/1 Inherent Vice (P.T.Anderson)
20/1 untitled (Lisandro Alonso)
20/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
20/1 The Cut (F.Akin)
20/1 The Blue Room (M.Amalric)

22/1 The Golden Era (A.Hui)
25/1 Band of Girls (C.Sciamma)
25/1 Ten Nights (D.Arcand)
25/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
28/1 The Rover (D.Michôd)
28/1 The Price of Glory (X.Beauvois)
28/1 Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
28/1 Everything Will Be Fine (W.Wenders)
33/1 Free Fall (G.Palfi)
33/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
33/1 Madame Bovary (S.Barthes)
33/1 Birdman (A.González Iñárritu)
33/1 Knight of Cups (T.Malick)
33/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
33/1 Three Hearts (B.Jacquot)
33/1 The Salvation (K.Levring)

40/1 Coming Home (Zhang); The Man Who Knew Too Little (Téchiné); The Homesman (Jones); Welcome to New York (Ferrara); Mommy (Dolan); Return to Ithaca (Cantet); The Face of an Angel Winterbottom); Bukowski (Franco); Francophonia (Sokurov); Jersey Boys (Eastwood); The Charming Rose (Khoo); Geronimo (Gatlif); Ariane’s Thread (Guédigian); Bird People (P.Ferran); In the Cellar (Seidl); The Church of the Devil (d’Oliveira); Tokyo Tribe (Sono)

===================================================================
FOURTH LIST: 22nd March 2014 at 0845 (UK), updated 1015.

8/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)
12/1 A Pigeon Sat On a Branch Contemplating Existence (R.Andersson)
12/1 Timbuktu aka The Pain of Birds (A.Sissako)
14/1 Leviafan (A.Zvyagintsev)
16/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
16/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
16/1 Queen and Country (J.Boorman)
16/1 Amour Fou (J.Hausner)
16/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
16/1 The Assassin (Hou Hsiao-Hsien)

18/1 untitled (Lisandro Alonso)
18/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
20/1 Phoenix (C.Petzold)
20/1 Horse Money (P.Costa)
20/1 Inherent Vice (P.T.Anderson)
20/1 The Cut (F.Akin)

22/1 The Blue Room (M.Amalric)
22/1 The White God (K.Mundruczo)
25/1 Miss Julie (L.Ullmann)
25/1 Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
25/1 Free Fall (G.Palfi)
28/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
28/1 Ten Nights (D.Arcand)
28/1 The Rover (D.Michôd)
28/1 Wild Life (C.Kahn)
28/1 Band of Girls (C.Sciamma)
28/1 The Price of Glory (X.Beauvois)

33/1
Goodbye To Language (Godard); Madame Bovary (Barthes); Birdman (González Iñárritu); Knight of Cups* (Malick); Everything Will Be Fine (Wenders); The Search (Hazanavicius); On the Milky Road (Kusturica); untitled (Hong); Three Hearts (Jacquot); Far From the Madding Crowd (Vinterberg); While We’re Young* (Baumbach); How To Catch a Monster (Gosling).

40/1
Coming Home (Zhang); Foxcatcher (Miller); The Man Who Knew Too Little (Téchiné); The Homesman (Jones); Mommy (Dolan); Return to Ithaca (Cantet); The Face of an Angel (Winterbottom); Bukowski (Franco); Francophonia (Sokurov); Jersey Boys (Eastwood); The Duke of Burgundy (Strickland); Hippocrates (Lilti); The Look of Silence (Oppenheimer, Cynn & Anonymous TBC); The Charming Rose (Khoo); Geronimo (Gatlif); Saint Laurent (Bonello); The Salvation (Levring); Ariane’s Thread (Guédiguian); Bird People (Ferran); In the Cellar (Seidl); The Church of the Devil (d’Oliveira); Tokyo Tribe (Sono).

outsiders include
Kuime (Miike), The Golden Era (Hui); The Normal Heart (Murphy); Bypass (Hopkins), Magic in the Moonlight (Allen), Tiens ta droite (Lewkowicz), Cemetery of Kings (Weerasethakul); Sin City: A Dame To Kill For (Rodriguez).

== = = === ===

SIXTH LIST: 17th April 2014 at 0930 (pre-announcement of Official Selection)

prediction: 22 films in Competition

The Blue Room (M.Amalric)
The Captive (A.Egoyan)
Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
Coming Home (Zhang Yimou)
Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
The Homesman (T.K.Jones)
Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
Leviafan (A.Zvyagintsev)
Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
Miss Julie (L.Ullmann)
Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
On the Milky Road (E.Kusturica)
A Pigeon Sat On a Branch Contemplating Existence (R.Andersson)
The Price of Glory (X.Beauvois)
The Rover (D.Michôd)
The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
Still the Water (N.Kawase)
Timbuktu aka The Pain of Birds (A.Sissako)
Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
Welcome to New York (A.Ferrara)
The White God (K.Mundruczo)
Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)

alternates
Amour Fou (J.Hausner)
The Charming Rose (E.Khoo)
Horse Money (P.Costa)
How To Catch a Monster (R.Gosling)
Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
The Salvation (K.Levring)
Tourist (R.Östlund)
untitled (L.Alonso)
– - – -

(films marked ^ are those currently predicted by JL to be in competition)

6/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan) ^
10/1 Leviafan (A.Zvyagintsev) ^
12/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg) ^
12/1 A Pigeon Sat On a Branch Contemplating Existence (R.Andersson) ^
14/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh) ^

16/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase) ^
16/1 Timbuktu aka The Pain of Birds (A.Sissako) ^
16/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas) ^
18/1 untitled (L.Alonso)
20/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach) ^
20/1 The Blue Room (M.Amalric) ^
20/1 Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne) ^
20/1 The Homesman (T.K.Jones) ^
20/1 Coming Home (Zhang Yimou) ^

25/1 Horse Money (P.Costa)
25/1 Amour Fou (J.Hausner)
25/1 The White God (K.Mundruczo) ^
28/1 Miss Julie (L.Ullmann) ^
28/1 The Rover (D.Michôd) ^
28/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)^

33/1 Free Fall (G.Palfi)
33/1 Tourist (R.Östlund)
33/1 Band of Girls (C.Sciamma)
33/1 The Golden Era (A.Hui)
33/1 Eden (M.Hansen-Løve)
33/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius) ^
33/1 Welcome to New York (A.Ferrara) ^
33/1 Serena (S.Bier)
33/1 untitled (D.Luchetti)
33/1 The Salvation (K.Levring)

40/1
The Captive (Egoyan) ^; Goodbye To Language (Godard); Madame Bovary (Barthes); Everything Will Be Fine (Wenders); On the Milky Road (Kusturica) ^; untitled (Hong); Three Hearts (Jacquot); Bird People (Ferran); Inherent Vice (Anderson); Ten Night (Arcand); The Price of Glory (Beauvois) ^; Wild Life (Kahn); Saint Laurent (Bonello); The Man Who Knew Too Little (Téchiné).

50/1+
Mommy (Dolan); Return to Ithaca (Cantet); The Face of an Angel (Winterbottom); Hippocrates (Lilti); The Look of Silence (Oppenheimer, Cynn & Anonymous TBC); The Charming Rose (Khoo); Geronimo (Gatlif); Ariane’s Thread (Guédiguian); In the Cellar (Seidl); The Church of the Devil (d’Oliveira); Tokyo Tribe (Sono); How To Catch a Monster (Gosling) ; Phoenix (C.Petzold); Queen and Country (J.Boorman); Jane Got a Gun (O’Connor).

other
Knight of Cups* (Malick); Bukowski (Franco); Over Your Dead Body (Miike);  The Normal Heart (Murphy), Bypass (Hopkins), Magic in the Moonlight (Allen), Tiens ta droite (Lewkowicz), Cemetery of Kings (Weerasethakul); Sin City: A Dame To Kill For (Rodriguez); The Assassin (Hou Hsiao-Hsien); The Cut (F.Akin); Far From the Madding Crowd (Vinterberg); While We’re Young* (Baumbach); Jersey Boys (Eastwood); Francophonia (Sokurov); The Duke of Burgundy (Strickland).
all titles subject to change

* or any other film by same director

 ==================
NINTH LIST: 17th April 2014 at 1700 (after announcement of Official Selection)

3/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)
11/2 Leviathan (A.Zvyagintsev)
6/1 Timbuktu (A.Sissako)
– - -
9/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
9/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
10/1 Farewell to Language (J-L.Godard)
– - -
14/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
16/1 any later addition
16/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
16/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
16/1 Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
20/1 The Homesman (T.K.Jones)
– - -
25/1 Mommy (X.Dolan)
25/1 The Marvel (A.Rohrwacher)
25/1 Wild Tales (D.Szifrón)
28/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
33/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
– - -
40/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
40/1 The Captive (A.Egoyan)

- – - -

 

7/2 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)
6/1 Timbuktu (A.Sissako)
6/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
13/2 Leviathan (A.Zvyagintsev)
7/1 Goodbye to Language (J-L.Godard)
– - -
11/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
12/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
14/1 Le Meraviglie [The Wonders] (A.Rohrwacher)
16/1 Two Days One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
16/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
20/1 The Homesman (T.L.Jones)
25/1 Wild Tales (D.Szifrón)
– - -
33/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
33/1 Mommy (X.Dolan)
33/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
35/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
40/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
40/1 The Captive (A.Egoyan

- – - -
TWELFTH LIST: 30th April 2014 at 0105 UK, updated 2355.

.
3/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan)
9/2 Leviathan (A.Zvyagintsev)
5/1 The Wonders (A.Rohrwacher)
7/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)
8/1 Timbuktu (A.Sissako)
– - -
11/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh)
14/1 Goodbye to Language (J-L.Godard)
16/1 Two Days, One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
16/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)
– - -
22/1 The Homesman (T.L.Jones)
22/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
22/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
22/1 Wild Tales (D.Szifrón)
- – -

33/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
33/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
40/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
40/1 Mommy (X.Dolan)
150/1 The Captive (A.Egoyan)
– - – -
18TH LIST: 17th May 2014 at 0900 (UK), updated 1030 and 1400
for information only
titles in bold have been screened at the festival

4/1 Winter Sleep (N.B.Ceylan) Palme d’Or
9/2 Leviathan (A.Zvyagintsev) Grand Prix
5/1 Mommy (X.Dolan) Best Director
6/1 Mr Turner (M.Leigh) Best Actor

9/1 Goodbye to Language (J-L.Godard) Prix du Jury
10/1 The Wonders (A.Rohrwacher) Best Screenplay
- – -
14/1 Timbuktu (A.Sissako)
14/1 Still the Water (N.Kawase)

16/1 Foxcatcher (B.Miller)
16/1 Two Days, One Night (Dardenne & Dardenne)
Best Actress
16/1 Maps to the Stars (D.Cronenberg)

20/1 Clouds of Sils Maria (O.Assayas)
– - -
28/1 The Homesman (T.L.Jones)
33/1 Jimmy’s Hall (K.Loach)
50/1 Wild Tales (D.Szifrón)
- – -

125/1 Saint Laurent (B.Bonello)
150/1 The Search (M.Hazanavicius)
200/1 The Captive (A.Egoyan)
– - – -
21st LIST: updated 22nd May 2014 at 2245 (UK)
for information only
titles in bold have been screened at the festival