Cannes 2026: Palme d’Or and acting-prize odds

final predictions
Palme d’Or: MINOTAUR
Grand Prix ex-aequo: THE BLACK BALL and FATHERLAND
Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, ALL OF A SUDDEN
Jury: HOPE
Screenplay: Cristian Mungiu, FJORD
Actor: Swann Arlaud, A MAN OF HIS TIME
Actress: Victoria Luengo, THE BELOVED

odds updated Saturday 23rd May, 9.30am CET

Best Actress
9/2  Victoria Luengo, THE BELOVED
5/1  Léa Seydoux, THE UNKNOWN
6/1  Virginie Efira / Tao Okamoto, ALL OF A SUDDEN
8/1  Yana Radeva, THE DREAMED ADVENTURE
8/1  Léa Drucker, A WOMAN’S LIFE
9/1  Léa Seydoux, GENTLE MONSTER (or *with* THE UNKNOWN)
10/1  Scarlett Johansson, PAPER TIGER
12/1  Iris Lebedeva, MINOTAUR
12/1  Takako Matsu / Shizuka Ishibashi, NAGI NOTES
12/1  Jung Ho-yeon, HOPE
12/1  Adèle Exarchopoulos, ANOTHER DAY
14/1  Sandra Hüller, FATHERLAND
14/1  Renate Reinsve*, FJORD
20/1  Haruka Ayase, SHEEP IN THE BOX
20/1  Bárbara Lennie / Aitana Sánchez-Gijón, BITTER CHRISTMAS
40/1  Hafsia Herzi / Monica Bellucci THE BIRTHDAY PARTY
50/1  Isabelle Huppert* / Virginie Efira, PARALLEL TALES

Best Actor
7/4  Swann Arlaud, A MAN OF HIS TIME
6/1  Javier Bardem*, THE BELOVED
8/1  Hanns Zischler, FATHERLAND
9/1  Lars Eidinger / Gilles Lellouche, MOULIN
10/1  Sebastian Stan, FJORD
11/1  Guitarricadelafuente / Miguel Bernardeau / Carlos González / Milo Quifes, THE BLACK BALL
12/1  Adam Driver / Miles Teller, PAPER TIGER
12/1  Rami Malek / Tom Sturridge, THE MAN I LOVE
14/1  Dmitriy Mazurov, MINOTAUR
22/1  Emmanuel Macchia / Valentin Campagne, COWARD
25/1  Daigo Yamamoto / Rimu Kuwaki, SHEEP IN THE BOX
28/1  Leonardo Sbaraglia, BITTER CHRISTMAS
40/1  Niels Schneider, THE UNKNOWN
50/1  Adam Bessa / Vincent Cassel, PARALLEL TALES
50/1  Benoît Magimel / Bastien Bouillon, THE BIRTHDAY PARTY
50/1  Syuleyman Letifov, THE DREAMED ADVENTURE
50/1  Hwang Jung-min / Zo In-sung, HOPE

*= previous winner

FORM GUIDE (Palme d’Or / Grand Prix)

2017  THE SQUARE (Östlund 43yo male) [0 previous comp.] showed 6th/19, Screen ave 2.7
——– B.P.M.: BEATS PER MINUTE (Campillo 54 m) [0] 5th/19 2.5
2018  SHOPLIFTERS (Kore-eda 55 m) [3; won Jury] 11th/21, 3.2
——– BLACKKKLANSMAN (Lee 61 m) [2] 13th/21, 2.5
2019  PARASITE (Bong 49 m) [1] 15th/21, 3.5
——– ATLANTICS (Diop 37 f) [0] 4th/21, 2.8
2021  TITANE (Ducornau 37 f) [0] 16th/24, 1.6
——– COMPARTMENT NO.6 (Kuosmanen 42 m) [0] 8th/24, 2.6
——– A HERO (Farhadi 49 m) [3; won Screenplay] 15th/24, 2.6
2022  TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Östlund 48 m) [1; won Palme] 7th/14, 2.5
——– CLOSE (Dhont 30 m) [0] 16th/21, 1.9
——– STARS AT NOON (Denis 76 f) [1] 19th/21, 2.4
2023  ANATOMY OF A FALL (Triet 44 f) [1] 10th/21, 3.0
——– THE ZONE OF INTEREST (Glazer 58 m) [0] 6th/21, 2.8
2024  ANORA (Baker 53 m) [1] 14th/22, 3.3
——– ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT (Kapadia 38 f) [0] 20th/22, 3.3
2025  IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Panahi 64 m)  [1, won screenplay] 14th/22, 3.1
——– SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Trier 51 m)  [2] 18th/22, 2.7

eve-of-festival odds (11th May, 6.30pm CET)

PALME
7/2  The Beloved   (135m. Rodrigo Sorogoyen 44 m) [0]
9/2  Minotaur   (135m. Andrey Zvyagintsev 62 m) [3, won Jury, Screenplay]
6/1  Fatherland   (82m. Pawel Pawlikowski 68 m) [1, won Director]
7/1  Gentle Monster   (114m. Marie Kreutzer 48 f) [0]
– – –
12/1  Hope   (160m. Na Hong-jin 51/2 m) [0]
14/1  Fjord   (146m. Cristian Mungiu 57 m) [4, won Palme, Director, Screenplay]
14/1  All of a Sudden   (196m. Ryusuke Hamaguchi 47 m) [2, won Screenplay]
16/1  The Black Ball   (155m. Ambrossi & Calvo. 41, 35 mm) [0]
16/1  Coward   (120m. Lukas Dhont 34 m) [1, won Grand Prix]
16/1  Sheep in the Box   (126m. Hirokazu Kore-eda 63 m) [7, won Palme, Jury]
20/1  Bitter Christmas   (112m. Pedro Almodóvar 76 m) [6, won Director, Screenplay]
20/1  Parallel Tales   (140m. Asghar Farhadi 53 m) [4, won Grand Prix, Screenplay]
25/1  The Unknown   (139m. Arthur Harari 44/5 m) [0]
25/1  Garance aka Another Day   (120m. Jeanne Herry 48 f) [0]
25/1  The Dreamed Adventure   (167m. Valeska Grisebach 58 f) [0]
25/1  Paper Tiger  (115m. James Gray 57 m) [5]
25/1  The Man I Love   (95m. Ira Sachs 60 m) [1]
28/1  Moulin   (130m. László Nemes 49 m) [1,  won Grand Prix]
33/1  A Man of His Time  (153m. Emmanuel Marre 45 m) [0]
– – –
50/1  Nagi Notes   (110m. Koji Fukada 46 m) [0]
66/1  The Birthday Party   (114m. Léa Mysius 37 f) [0]
80/1  A Woman’s Life   (98m Charline Bourgeois-Tacquet 40 f) [0]

Best Actor
4/1  Hanns Zischler, FATHERLAND
5/1  Swann Arlaud, A MAN OF HIS TIME
11/2  Guitarricadelafuente / Miguel Bernardeau / Carlos González / Milo Quifes, THE BLACK BALL
6/1  Javier Bardem*, THE BELOVED
8/1  Daigo Yamamoto / Rimu Kuwaki, SHEEP IN THE BOX
12/1  Rami Malek, THE MAN I LOVE
12/1  Dmitriy Mazurov, MINOTAUR
12/1  Sebastian Stan, FJORD
14/1  Emmanuel Macchia / Valentin Campagne, COWARD
14/1  Hwang Jung-min / Zo In-sung, HOPE
16/1  Gilles Lellouche, MOULIN
20/1  Syuleyman Alilov Letifo, THE DREAMED ADVENTURE
22/1  Adam Driver / Miles Teller, PAPER TIGER
25/1  Benoît Magimel / Bastien Bouillon, THE BIRTHDAY PARTY
33/1  Leonardo Sbaraglia, BITTER CHRISTMAS
33/1  Niels Schneider, THE UNKNOWN
40/1  Vincent Cassel / Pierre Niney / Adam Bessa, PARALLEL TALES
40/1  Kyōzō Nagatsuka, ALL OF A SUDDEN
50/1  Laurence Rupp, GENTLE MONSTER

*= previous winner

first odds after competition announcement (9/4/26)

9/2  Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
5/1  Fatherland (Pawel Pawlikowski)
6/1  Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)
13/2  All of a Sudden (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
8/1  Hope (Na Hong-jin)
9/1  The Beloved (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
10/1  Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi)
12/1  any late addition
14/1  Coward (Lukas Dhont)
16/1  Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
16/1  The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
16/1  The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
20/1  Gentle Monster (Marie Kreutzer)
22/1  Sheep in the Box (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
25/1  Moulin (László Nemes)
28/1  The Black Ball (Ambrossi & Calvo)
28/1  Stories of the Night (Léa Mysius)
33/1  The Man I Love (Ira Sachs)
40/1  Garance aka Another Day (Jeanne Herry)
40/1  Nagi Diary (Koji Fukada)
50/1  Notre Salut (Emmanuel Marre)
50/1  A Woman’s Life (Charline Bourgeois-Tacquet)

final pre-announcement odds (8/4/26)
5/1  Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
11/2 Fatherland aka 1949 (Pawel Pawlikowski)
6/1  Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)
8/1  The Beloved (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
8/1  All of a Sudden (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
11/1  Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi)
14/1  Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)
14/1  The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
16/1  Hope (Na Hong-jin)
16/1  Sheep in the Box (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
20/1  Gentle Monster (Marie Kreutzer)
20/1  Paper Tiger (James Gray)
20/1  Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almódovar)
20/1  Red Rocks (Bruno Dumont)
22/1  Out of this World (Albert Serra)*
25/1  Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (Jane Schoenbrun)
28/1  I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)
33/1  Her Private Hell (Nicolas Winding Refn)
33/1  Histoires de la Nuit / Stories of the Night / The Birthday Party (Léa Mysius)
33/1  A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)*
33/1  Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)

longshots
untitled Mike Leigh film*
After (Lars “von” Trier)*
After (Kirill Serebrennikov)
Alpha Gang (Zellner & Zellner)
A. Rimbaud (Patrick Wang)
La Bola Negra (Ambrossi & Calvo)
Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)
Bunker (Florian Zeller)*
Coward (Lukas Dhont)*
Daughter’s Memoir aka A Girl’s Story (Judith Godrèche)
A Day In The Life of Jo: Chapter Phaedra (Jacqueline Lentzou)
The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)
Dora (July Jung)
Dumas: Black Devil (Ladj Ly)
The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
The First Taste of Loneliness (Gu You)
Gaza Year Zero (Sawwaf & Winterbottom)
Guria (Levan Koguashvili)
I’ll Forget Your Name (Yann Gonzalez)
It Will Happen Tonight (Nanni Moretti)
King Snake (Jeff Nichols)
The Life of a Woman (Charline Bourgeois-Tacquet)
Nagi Notes (Koji Fukada)
The Object of the Offence (Agnès Jaoui)
La Perra (Dominga Sotomayor)
A Place to Heal aka 15/18 (Cédric Kahn)
Possible Love (Lee Chang-dong)*
Roma Elastica (Bertrand Mandico)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)*
The Wolf Will Tear Your Immaculate Hands (Nathalie Álvarez Mesén)

*participation more a “maybe” than a “probably”

also possible (including films more likely for other Cannes sections or Venice or 2027…)
The Adventures of Cliff Booth (David Fincher)
American Nails (Abel Ferrara)
Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)
Ask the Mountain (Pierre Menahem)
Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (Takashi Miike)
Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)
Burning Rainbow Farm (Justin Kurzel)
La Chaleur (Stéphane Demoustier)
Colony (Yeon Sang-ho)
The Costume (Corneliu Porumboiu) working title
Cry to Heaven (Tom Ford)
The Electric Kiss (Pierre Salvadori)
The Entertainment System is Down (Ruben Östlund)
Everytime (Sandra Wollner)
Le Faux Soir (Michaël R. Roskam)
A Few Words of Love (Rudi Rosenberg)
Forever Your Mother Animal (Valentina Maurel)
Full Phil (Quentin Dupieux)
Garance (Jeanne Herry)
Glaxo (Benjamín Naishtat)
A Good Little Soldier (Stephane Brizé)
Hombre al agua (Gael García Bernal)
The Idiots (Englert & Szumowska)
Ink (Danny Boyle)
Jack of Spades (Joel Coen)
Jupiter (Alexandre Smia)
Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner (Kiyoshi Kurosawa)
The Last Concert (Alexandre Arcady)
Leila et la Nuit (Fellipe Barbosa)
Let Love In (van Groeningen & Vandermeersch)
La Libertad Doble (Lisandro Alonso)
Lost Paradise (Yeon Sang-ho)
Love Lessons (Martin Prevost)
Man Vs Flock (Tamara Kotevska)
The Meltdown (Manuela Martelli)
Milo (Nicole Garcia)
9 Temples to Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)
Notre Salut (Emmanuel Marre)
Une Nuit (Daniel Auteuil)
Santo Subito! (Bertrand Bonello)
Sweetsick (Alice Birch)
Wild Horse Nine (Martin McDonagh)